EV Growth Will Take Time, One Forecast Suggests

Philip Oakley

---

24th May 2019

A forecast on the possible growth of EVs in the car market admits that uptake “will take time”.

The analysis by Bloomberg suggests by 2040  there could be as many as 500M passenger EVs on the world’s roads, plus another 40M commercial EVs. However, this clearly assumes a massive acceleration from the current 0.5% of the global mix of more than 1Bn vehicles in daily use.

The analysis expects the high cost of EVs compared to traditional ICE powertrains will fall to make them more attractive propositions to consumers. It claims sales of ICE powered vehicles has already peaked and, while the ICE passenger car fleet will continue increasing, it will start declining by 2030 as the price tags of new EVs reach parity. Passenger car ownership growth in developed countries is slowly falling, the report says, owing to rise of ride-hailing, smart mobility and car-sharing options. Longer term, autonomy will cut even deeper into this growth. Yet, in developing countries, growth is expected to continue amid high demand for car ownership.

Government clean air regulations are also likely to have an effect with CO2 emissions from road transport peaking in 2030 before declining, says the study. It adds that, by 2040, emissions will have returned to 2018 levels, thanks to developed nations meeting climate change targets.