‘When’ and ‘how’ now the biggest questions facing driverless vehicles

Autonomous cars are a big part of the future of transportation; there is no longer any serious doubt about that. With so many companies – from large and famous, to small and hungry – labouring to provide products and solutions for hands-free driving, not to mention the vast sums of money potentially to be made, a driverless future is inevitable.
Because there’s no question of if, the big unknowns regarding full passenger vehicle autonomy are when and how.
At first glance, it might seem as if we’re just on the cusp of the Autonomous Era. Examples abound: Google’s cute self-driving cars do a fine job shuttling passengers on their little journeys, while Audi’s driverless prototype last year transported a gaggle of journalists on a 600-mile or so journey from San Francisco to Las Vegas. Every incumbent automaker has at least one working prototype and their pilot programmes have generally been successful thus far. Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) have moved quickly out of the realm of fantasy and speculation and will increasingly become part of our driving lives.
But there are plenty of roadblocks on the way to full autonomy. Firstly, getting a car to drive itself is a challenge that only deepens and intensifies the closer we get to complete hands-off operation. Also, a set of accepted protocols and standards for self-piloting vehicles is needed so that they can “talk” to each other, in order to avoid collisions and other mishaps. Lastly, and perhaps most challenging of all, is the almost complete lack of a regulatory framework for autonomous driving. In fact, one recent institutional development in an influential Californian market has seemed to throw up a big roadblock for self-piloting cars.
The push towards complete, hands-off driving has been rapid so far but we’ve many miles to go. This paper will assess the current state of the technology and its implementation, then detail the challenges – technical and otherwise – that will need to be surmounted in order for us to realise this most exciting transportation technology of the future.
Where we are now: gathering speed
In spite of the great brainpower, piles of capital, and good old-fashioned effort being devoted to autonomous vehicles, humans are still performing nearly all key driving tasks manually. If we grade our level of progress on a scale from 0 (driver only) to 5 (full autonomy), we’re currently less than halfway to the finish at level 2. Before we delve into the reasons why (and how we might progress further) let’s have a look at these five stages of automation, as defined by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers: